The current heatwave in the Philippines, caused by the El Niño phenomenon, might cause another inflation surge.

News Image #1

(Photo from FB: Kadiwa)

According to the latest forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the heat index in Metro Manila as of April 18th stands between 39 and 40 degrees Celsius.

News Image #2

(Photo from Pagasa)

The hottest temperature recorded today was in Arborlan, Palawan, reaching up to 45 degrees Celsius.

In a discussion paper by economists from the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP), it was found that when the country's average temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius, the economy slows by 0.37 points.

Economic growth slows even further by 0.47 percentage points when there's a climate deterioration similar to El Niño.

The study, the first to measure the long-term effect of extreme temperatures on a country's economy, stated that the excessive heat resulting from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event leads to an increase in the prices of essential goods.

"Short-term inflationary effects of temperature shocks on headline, food, and non-food are deeper in magnitude at 0.49 ppt, 0.69 ppt, and 0.49 ppt, respectively, when we incorporated dummy variables for episodes of ENSO events," according to the study.

Luzon is the most affected by inflation as most agricultural lands are located there, along with food processing and machinery production facilities.